FORSYTH COUNTY GROWTH

AGAIN FORSYTH COUNTY'S GROWTH RATE IS ON TOP AT 11.9%
(Ron Seder 3/10/00)

The newspapers of March 9 & 10, 2000 reveal that Forsyth County's July 1, 1998 to July 1, 1999 growth rate is estimated by the Census Bureau to be second in the nation at 11.9%.  And,the July 1, 1999 population is estimated to be 96,686.

Forsyth County missed the first place national ranking because the number one ranking county, Sussex County, Virginia, had a population increase of 22.8% to 12,345.   Most of that increase was caused by 2,400 inmates in two new prisons in Sussex County.  Without the two new prisons the Sussex County population change would have been inconsequential, and Forsyth County would have again been ranked #1.

The Times (Gainesville, Georgia)
 

The newspapers of March 12, 1999 show a result of what I was talking about in the 8/29/97 article below.
(Ron Seder 3/12/99)

(Ron Seder 8/29/97)

Some say the citizens of Forsyth County elected new Forsyth County Commissioners because they believed their promises to reduce the density and rate of development in Forsyth County. Have the new commissioners kept good faith with their slower growth and reduced density promises? I think the answer is clearly no. The following are some reasons for my conclusion.

Voters Misled

First, these new Commissioners misled the voters during the election campaign. They told citizens that the old Board of Commissioners approved thousands of building lots at a density of three houses per acre. Not true! The residential zoning (CR1), which they misrepresented to the voters, allowed a minimum lot size of 13,000 square feet, but required an overall maximum density in the development of less than two houses per acre. All Forsyth County new residential development during the 1994 to 1996 period actually yielded an average density of about 1.35 houses per acre.

In March, 1997 the new Board of Commissioners changed the County zoning ordinance, claiming the changes would decrease the overall density of residential development. This is not true.

The minimum lot size for one of the most popular residential zoning categories, CR1, was changed from 13,000 square feet to 15,000 square feet. However, the overall average development land area requirement per house remained at a minimum 22,000 square feet, thereby, allowing virtually the same number of houses on the same total acreage.

Different Shape, Same Size

Changes were made to another popular residential category, R2R. These changes required a differently-shaped lot, but the minimum lot sizes did not change. They remained at 25,500 square feet on septic systems and 22,000 square feet on sewer. This zoning category has no requirement for an overall minimum development land area per house, consequently the minimum size lot is the density determinant.

R2R category lots, therefore, will now be wider and not as long, but again virtually the same number of lots can be put on the same development acreage.

There was also a change in the R3 residential zoning category allowing four single family houses per acre. This is a much higher single family housing density than allowed before.

A new zoning category of OSR (Open Space Residential) was added to the zoning ordinance allowing developments lots to be a minimum of 20,000 square feet with a requirement of an overall minimum average development land area of one acre per house. If used, that zoning category would tend to reduce development density, but its use depends on whether developers conclude the market will allow them to have a more successful business at that density, or at the higher densities of other zoning categories. Under the old rules, developers could, and did, produce lower density developments, but that option was used very little.

Misled or Misleading?

I conclude the residential zoning ordinance changes made by the current Board of Commissioners in March, 1997 are more likely to increase residential density than decrease it. Were those Commissioners who were in favor of the zoning ordinance changes so uninformed as to really believe residential densities would decrease, or were they trying to mislead the citizens?

The prior Board of Commissioners did make changes that impacted development density. During April, 1995 the prior Board of Commissioners changed the overall development minimum land area per house in a CR1 development from 20,000 square feet to 22,000 square feet. Also. in April, 1995, the prior Board of Commissioners changed the minimum lot size in R2R developments from 20,000 square feet to 25,500 square feet on septic systems and 22,000 on sewer systems. These were changes that really did reduce the maximum density of housing allowed in a development.

Higher Density

In actual practice the new Board of Commissioners has also approved residential densities much higher than any approved during the previous several years. Actions speak louder than words.

Earlier this year the new Board of Commissioners zoned a new development for five single family houses per acre off Bethleview Road. In August the Board of Commissioners zoned a piece of property on Atlanta Road for six single family houses per acre.

In July, 1997 the new Board of Commissioners refused to accept new Master Land Use and Development Plan. A Plan that was professionally produced by Robert and Company with the guidance of a thirty-person citizen panel carefully selected to represent the diversity of interests of Forsyth County citizens. The Board also refused, after having previously agreed, to have a work session with the Plan Citizen Advisory Committee to learn more about the plan and attempt to identify differences they might have with the proposed plan. The Citizen Advisory Committee was never informed of the Board of Commissioner's specific doubts about the plan, except to be told, without supporting rationale, that the proposed Plan promoted higher housing development density.

The proposed Plan does not promote higher development density. The Plan establishes different maximum development densities, and therefore implies different zoning categories, for different parts of the County. The existing Master Land Use Plan establishes no maximum (not less) residential development density parameters. Also, the existing plan allows any residential zoning category to be used virtually anywhere in the County.

The existing Land Use Plan is implemented through County ordinances and regulations. The implementation of a new Land Use Plan will also be accomplished through County ordinances and regulations. Those new ordinances and regulations, within the guidelines of the new Master Land Use Plan, will determine the actual density of residential development.

Moratorium Expired

Experiencing the high rate of residential development in the County and anticipating potential significant changes in a new Master Land Use and Development Plan, the prior Board of Commissioners imposed a residential zoning moratorium in May, 1996. The new Board of Commissioners allowed that moratorium expire in March, 1997. During the moratorium, the actual number of residential building permits, applied for and issued, decreased, after several years of increasing permit issuances. Now it appears the number of residential building permits will again increase with no moratorium and no implementation of the proposed new Master Land Use and Development Plan.

During the August 25, 1997 Board of Commissioners meeting the Board again discussed the possibility of a zoning moratorium until a new Master Land Use Plan is adopted. However, the Board instead passed a resolution stating they could delay the approval of a zoning application if the Board concluded the development would put too much strain on the infrastructure.

The Board of Commissioners already has that power. Was this just a deceptive public display designed to convince citizens that the Board really is doing something about the density and rate of development?

Conclusion

So, here we are. The new members of the Board of Commissioners have talked as though they are doing things to better reduce the density and rate of growth in the County, but I believe examination of the facts proves reality to be quite different.

The continuing development of Forsyth County needs improved guidance to produce results that encourage a good quality of life in years to come. Also, the County needs relief from the rate of growth it has experienced during the past several years. These are some of the reasons the County initiated planning activity in 1993 that ultimately resulted in the proposed new Master Land Use and Development Plan.

The County has grown at a rate of about 12% per year for the last four years. The 1990 census showed the County population to be 44,083, and today the population is about 80,000. I believe Forsyth County cannot continue to grow at that rate while providing timely infrastructure and a quality of life desired by most Forsyth County citizens.

A new Master Land Use and Development Plan, new County ordinances and new County regulations are needed now to give better guidance to the rate and density of development. Citizens must make themselves knowledgeable and must make themselves heard if they are to get as much consideration as those with special interests who are willing to use their finances and other influence to get their way.