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Lake Levels
Home Up Gwinnett Sewer Lake In Peril Tri-States Standards Metro District Lake Levels Protection 2007/8 Crisis

 

 

I received an invitation from the Corps of Engineers to give a presentation at an ACF River Basin Public Meeting in Columbus on December 5, 2002.  Due to illness I was unable to attend, but I did fax the information to Colonel Keyser on December 4.  Following are the Corps of Engineers invitation and my response letter.

 

Ronald E. Seder
6355 Barberry Hill Place
Gainesville, Georgia 30506
770-889-1088
ronseder@mindspring.com

 

 
December 4, 2002 

Colonel Robert B. Keyser, District Engineer
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District
P.O. Box 2288
Mobile, Alabama 36628-0001
 

Dear Colonel Keyser, 

Thank you for your invitation to present quantified information at the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Public Meeting on December 5th in Columbus.  I have had every intention of attending the meeting and making a presentation, however, I am now temporarily ill and suspect I will not be able to attend the meeting tomorrow evening.  Therefore, I am sending you this letter to address the subject. 

I have been involved in learning about Lake Lanier, and working for its preservation for fourteen years.  I publish some Lake Lanier information on my website at http://ronseder.home.mindsprong.com, which deals with the importance of Lake Lanier as a recreational lake. 

Lake Lanier Recreational Value 

According to Corps of Engineers reports, Lake Lanier enjoys 7 to 8 million visitors per year. 

A “Marine Trade Association of Metropolitan Atlanta” report, “Lake Sidney C. Lanier A Study Of The Economic Impact Of Recreation”, dated September 2001, shows recreation on Lake Lanier to be the dominant portion of a $5.5 billion recreational contribution to the economy.  A letter at the beginning of the report, signed by Kit Dunlap, President/CEO of the Greater Hall Chamber of Commerce says “The economic impact is over $5 billion annually…recreation a predominant part of that number”. 

The UGA “DIAGNOSTIC/FEASIBILITY STUDY OF LAKE SIDNEY LANIER, GEORGIA” (commonly referred to as the Lake Lanier Clean Lakes Study) (on the web at  http://www.cviog.uga.edu/projects/lanier/), referring to Lake Lanier recreation, says on page 6-2 “Recreation is the biggest revenue producer on the lake, generating $2 billion per year (McCafferty, 1995).” 

Lake Levels are significant to the amount of recreation on Lake Lanier and consequently to the Lake’s recreational economic contribution.  The Corps of Engineers, “Water Allocation for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin” (on the web at  http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/pd/actacfeis/acf-draft.htm), in the Volume 2 Appendices, Table F-5-32 on page F-5-34, shows Lake Lanier boater trips at a Lake level of 1065’ msl to be only 51% of the boater trips at 1071’ msl.  The table also shows boater trips at a Lake level of 1055’ to be only 13% of the boater trips at a Lake level of 1071. 

The Lake Lanier recreational benefits are huge compared to the economics of Lake Lanier water released for power generation or navigation, which significantly lowers Lake Lanier levels. 

Lake Lanier Large Volume vs. Small Watershed 

Lake Lanier is considered to be the majority of the water storage volume on the ACF River system, and in fact that is true if taking the Lake down to 1035’ msl (36 feet below full summer pool) is considered to be realistic.  However, considering lowering Lake Lanier to a level of 1035’ msl is not at all practical.  First, lowering the Lake to that level would devastate Lake Lanier recreation and its economic contribution.  Second, if the Lake were taken down to that level the water supply insurance provided by the Lake would be depleted, and timely Lake refilling would not be possible in most years. 

Lake Lanier has a very small watershed for the volume of the Lake, and because of that and the drought the lake has not been at the top of its Conservation Pool since June of 1998.  West Point Lake and lakes below it have not suffered nearly as much low lake hardship.  During the same period of time since June of 1998 West Point Lake has been at or above its conservation pool level much of the time. 

The Corps of Engineers water releases from Lanier and West Point significantly influence the lake levels, but one of the big reasons for the full lake difference between Lake Lanier and West Point Lake, since the drought started in 1998, is that West Point Lake and the reservoirs below it have relatively much larger watersheds to refill them than does Lanier.  Referring to Table 4-5 on Page 4-48 of the Corps of Engineers September 1998 EIS “Water Allocation for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin” (on the web at http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/pd/actacfeis/acf-draft.htm), it can be seen that Lake Lanier has a watershed of 1040 square miles versus West Point Lake’s watershed of 3,440 square miles, and West Point is a much smaller lake than Lanier.  Therefore an inch of rain on the West Point watershed will raise the West Point Lake level very much more than an inch of rain on the Lake Lanier watershed will raise the Lake Lanier water level.  As a point of comparison it is interesting to note that the Apalachicola River has a watershed of 19,600 square miles to contribute runoff to its flows. 

I have concluded from the Tri-States ACF technical work that managing Lake Lanier to a lowest level of 1035’ msl rather than 1055’ msl, while managing the system so Lake Lanier would eventually refill, would make a difference of only about 150 cfs in the flows of the Apalachicola River.  That would be a flow of 150 cfs on top of a minimum flow of 5,000 cfs in the Apalachicola River.  I do not think that Apalachicola flow difference would cause any measurable difference in Apalachicola River benefits, but the 20’ lower Lake Lanier would devastate Lake Lanier recreation and its economic benefit. 

Atlanta Metropolitan Area Water Supplies 

Probably the greatest worth of Lake Lanier is as assurance of a continuous water supply for the Atlanta Metropolitan Area.  The economic success of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area positively influences the economic success of all of Georgia, and continuing that economic health requires a dependable water supply.  In some respects the drought we have experienced since 1998 is the worst drought of our area since Lake Lanier was first filled, but it surely is not the worst drought this area will ever suffer.  Since we cannot predict droughts it is important to manage Lake Lanier as though there is always a drought just around the corner, so that when the drought does occur there are adequate Lake Lanier water to handle the drought.  That means that Lake Lanier should be kept relatively full during normal years and the reservoir releases managed accordingly. 

Summary 

The Lake Lanier recreational quality-of-life (7 to 8 million annual visits) and economic ($5.5 billion) benefits, as well as assurance of a dependable Metropolitan Atlanta water supply, require high Lake Lanier levels, which depend on nature’s gift of rain and wise Corps of Engineers management of Lake Lanier water releases. 

Sincerely,
 

Ronald E. Seder

 

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
MOBILE DISTRICT, CORPS OF ENGINEERS
P.O. BOX 2288
MOBILE , ALABAMA 36628-0001 

 

            REPLY TO
               
ATTENTION OF

Plan Formulation Branch
Planning and Environmental Division

SUBJECT:   Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Public Meeting.
 

Dear ACF Stakeholder, 

    I have scheduled a public meeting for the night of December 5, 2002 , from 6:30 P.M. until10:30 P.M. EST at the Columbus Convention & Trade Center , 801 Front Avenue , Columbus , Georgia . The purpose of the meeting is to obtain information from stakeholders and other affected interests concerning the operations of the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps), Mobile District, reservoirs within the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. This meeting is unrelated to the on-going consideration of water allocation formula concepts of the States of Alabama, Florida , and Georgia .

     The Corps, in exercising its discretionary authority in operating the ACF reservoir system, attempts to balance the water needs of multiple purposes within the basin. The purposes for which the Corps reservoirs operate include those originally authorized as well as those that have come about as a result of subsequent Federal legislation. Enclosure 1 contains a map of the Corps reservoirs within the ACF River Basin and a list of project purposes for which each reservoir is operated.

     As you know, the ACF River Basin has experienced serious drought conditions over the past five years. While it is presently too early to forecast, the year 2003 may well mark the sixth year of this drought. These conditions have and will continue to complicate the task of the Corps in balancing the needs of the varied and often competing uses of water within the ACF system. It is my objective to operate, within my discretionary authority and existing water control plans, the Federal reservoirs in the ACF River Basin to achieve an equitable distribution of water among the various stakeholders and interests. In this regard, I request that you or a designated

spokesperson representing your user group or stakeholder interest, present at the meeting quantified information concerning the essential water needs of your stakeholder group in order to assist the Corps in making reservoir management decisions in the ACF River Basin during the upcoming year and for the next few years. I believe it is important for all stakeholders to understand and appreciate that during water-short periods of time, not all water needs can be

 fully met. Yet, the Corps has the responsibility to operate reservoirs in a balanced manner to maximize the benefits of the authorized purposes. Accordingly, your quantitative information will assist me in making better decisions in the overall best interest of the public we serve.

     I look forward to receiving your information at the meeting. If you have any questions concerning this meeting, please feel free to call Mr. Keith Graham at (251) 694-3882 or e-mail john.k.graham@sam.usace.army.mil

                                              Sincerely,
 

                                              Robert B. Keyser
                                             
Colonel, Corps of Engineers
                                              
District Engineer 


Enclosure

 

Lake Lanier Levels and Buford Dam Releases
Early September 2002
 
(Ron Seder 10/24/02)

From meetings I have attended, and people I have talked with during the past year, I had the impression that releases of Lake Lanier water, through Buford Dam, were being constrained to only satisfy the minimum Chattahoochee River flow requirement of 750 cubic feet per second (cfs) at Peachtree Creek. 

Part of my normal daily routine includes checking the Corps of Engineers website, http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/acfframe.htm, to review information about the previous day’s Lake Lanier levels and Buford Dam releases.  I noticed that Lake Lanier levels were falling rapidly in early September.   Lake Lanier was one foot lower on September 12 (1060.38 msl) than it was on September 3 (1061.37 msl). 

Because of the rapid Lake level change I wrote to the Corps of Engineers Mobile District Office (responsible for Lake Lanier management) and received a very good and informative response from Colonel Robert Keyser, the District Engineer. 

The information supplied by Colonel Keyser shows that the average Chattahoochee River flow at Peachtree Creek (Georgia Highway 280) from September 3rd through September 12th was 1440 cfs, far in excess of the 750 cfs Chattahoochee River minimum flow required at Peachtree Creek.  Had the Flow averaged 750 cfs instead of 1440 cfs, the Lake level decline would have been much less than the one foot reduction experienced between September 3rd and September 12th.  Of course, I am more sensitive to the potential difference in lake level during this period of a four year drought.  If the drought lingers, and those Buford Dam releases continue significantly greater than required for the Peachtree Creek 750 cfs minimum requirement, Lake Lanier levels could be lowered by several feet more than required for the River flows at Peachtree Creek. 

Following are my letter and Colonel Keyser’s reply.

 

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
MOBILE DISTRICT, CORPS OF ENGINEERS
P.O. BOX 2288
MOBILE , ALABAMA 36628-0001

10 0CT 2002


REPLY TO
ATTENTION OF
:

Water Management Section
Engineering Division

Mr. Ronald E. Seder
6355 Barberry Hill Place
Gainesville , GA 30506 

Dear Mr. Seder, 

        Thank you for taking the opportunity to write me in regards to the operation of Lake Lanier and regarding the questions you presented at the Water Management in the ACT and ACF Basins public meeting in Tallahassee , Florida . I'm sorry that your questions were not completely answered during those sessions and that you did not have an opportunity to get clarification. I hope that I can shed some light on our operations of Buford Dam over the last few weeks. 

        As you are probably aware, the entire southeast region is facing one of the most difficult droughts that this region has experienced in decades. This summer has been particularly dry with several months of record-setting low levels of inflow to the lakes and the entire basin. Records were set for the lowest inflows into Lanier, West Point and W.F. George for an August since those projects were built. 

        Your letter asked for information regarding the releases made from Buford Dam as it relates to the minimum flow requirements at Peachtree Creek and whether they exceeded the 750 cfs requirements. The records of the releases at Buford show that we have made releases ranging from a weekly average of approximately 1000 cubic feet per second (cfs) in early August up to the daily discharges of 2300 cfs on September 12. The increase in the releases were made to support the increased requirements for the Atlanta area due to the extreme dry conditions in that reach of the river system and to support the minimum flow needs on the lower ACF system. The decision to increase the discharges were made by my water management staff based on their assessment of the conditions and needs in the entire basin. This decision-making process also incorporated the weekly coordination between the Atlanta Regional Commission and Georgia Power Company personnel in determining the flow needs for the Atlanta area. 

        One of the responsibilities of all Federal agencies is to undertake actions in a manner to protect and enhance the recovery of endangered and threatened species. Water management agencies such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must also consult with State fish and wildlife agencies to assure that impacts to fish and wildlife are minimized. In addition, fish and wildlife conservation is an authorized project purpose for the reservoir projects in the ACF basin. 

        As stated earlier, because conditions became extremely dry in the entire basin and the lower lakes were beginning to exhaust their storage, it became necessary to support the 5000 cfs minimum flow requirement on the Apalachicola River with the additional releases from Lanier. During the period in early September, the inflow into the entire basin had dropped below 1000 cfs per day, which left a shortfall of about 4000 cfs needed to support the 5000 cfs flow. 

        The 5000 cfs flow is identified in the existing water control plan as the minimum flow required to support industrial water supply needs on the Apalachicola River . It supports the minimum water intake level for Gulf Power's Plant Scholz generating plant that is located a few miles downstream of Woodruff Dam. No minimum flow has been identified in the water control plan as necessary for fish and wildlife purposes, although the 5000 cfs minimum flow has generally been recognized to minimally provide for water quality and fish and wildlife needs. However, the water control plan does recognize that the State of Florida identified seasonally varied flows and minimum flows of at least 7500 cfs as necessary to support certain key fish species (i.e. Gulf striped bass) on the Apalachicola River

        The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has stated that flows less than 5000 cfs would result in an adverse impact to Federally-protected mussels on the Apalachicola River, and has requested the Mobile District to initiate Section 7 consultation pursuant to the Endangered Species Act if a waiver from the minimum flows in the water control plans is pursued. This consultation would determine the extent of impact on the mussels and whether the continued existence of the mussels would be jeopardized; and would determine those reasonable and prudent measures necessary to protect the species. We are initiating studies to assist in evaluating the impact of reduced flows on mussels and mussel habitat, in the event a waiver from the water control plan is determined necessary due to continued drought conditions in the basin. We are also continuing to consult with the Federal and State fish and wildlife agencies during these extended drought conditions to minimize the impacts associated with the balancing of all uses of the waters in the basin. 

        Due to the recent rainfall in the basin as a result of Tropical Storms Hannah and Isidore, the discharges from Buford Dam have been reduced to approximately 1000 cfs per day. This is a level that is adequate to meet only the Atlanta needs as the lower river projects have had some of their storage replenished from the storm and can meet the Apalachicola River minimum flow needs. 

        I have enclosed the river readings on a floppy disk as requested for the gage on the Chattahoochee River at Georgia Highway 280, which is the nearest gage to the confluence of the Chattahoochee River and Peachtree Creek. 

        I hope that I have answered your question more definitively and if you have additional follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to contact me at (251) 690-2511. 

                                         Sincerely,

  

                                         Robert B. Keyser
                                        
Colonel, Corps of Engineers
                                        
District Engineer

Enclosure

 

Ronald E. Seder
6355 Barberry Hill Place
Gainesville , Georgia 30506
770-889-1088
ronseder@mindspring.com

 
 

September 13, 2002 

Colonel Robert B. Keyser, District Engineer
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District
P.O. Box 2288
Mobile , Alabama 36628-0001 

Dear Colonel Keyser, 

I have been involved in promoting the preservation of Lake Lanier for many years.  My wife and I love Lake Lanier , and therefore, our home is on the Lake

I am writing because Lake Lanier levels are already 10.5 feet below full pool, Lake Lanier levels are declining rapidly (1.1 feet in September through the 11th), Lake Lanier levels are now one foot lower than last year at this time (also a very tough draught year) and because Buford Dam water releases appear to be much greater lately than is required to satisfy the 750 cfs minimum flow at Peachtree Creek. 

I ask for direct quantitative answers.  I raised the Buford Dam release question in Tallahassee on September 9th when your folks were presenting the “Water Management in the ACT and ACF Basins ”.  I was told, as I have been told before, that there are many players in the Buford Dam release decision process (the ARC, Georgia Power, Morgan Falls requirements, etc.), but I was not given a definitive answer to my question, and I was not allowed to ask a follow-up question for clarification. 

According to the Corps of Engineers website, Buford Dam releases since September 3rd have been mostly running between 1700 cfs and 2300 cfs.  Please provide me with the daily Chattahoochee River flows at Peachtree Creek for that period of time.  Have those flows exceeded the 750 cfs minimum requirement?  If the flows have exceeded the 750 cfs flows, what is the reason?  If the 750 cfs flow was exceeded because of a Corps of Engineers requirement, or someone else put that requirement on the Corps of Engineers, please tell me the reason(s) the requester asked for Buford Dam releases larger than required to produce the minimum 750 cfs Chattahoochee River flow at Peachtree Creek. 

May I look forward to an early reply? 

Thank you in advance for your attention to my request. 

Sincerely,
 

Ronald E. Seder

This was presented at the Lake Lanier Association General Membership Meeting of May 28, 2002.

LAKE LANIER LEVELS CURRENT AND FUTURE
(Ron Seder 5/28/02)
 

Lake Lanier levels are important to all of us who enjoy the aesthetic and recreational benefits of the Lake.  Lake Lanier receives approximately eight million visits per year and has a recreation economic impact of $5.5 billion. 

High Lake levels have a significant positive impact on the desirability of the Lake, the visits to the Lake and the recreation economy the Lake produces. 

Lake levels are influenced by several things, including the amount of water coming to the lake from rain on its watershed, Buford Dam peak power generation releases, water supply withdrawals from the Lake and the Chattahoochee River, releases for minimum river flows and releases for downriver navigation.  With the exception of rain, man controls most of these Lake level impacts. 

Recent Lake Levels 

We are still experiencing a four-year drought; therefore the Lake has not had as much water input (rain runoff from the Lake’s watershed) as normal.  The Lake has not been full since June 1998.  The Lake level today is 1065.8 msl, and that is the highest it has been since June 2000. However, that current Lake level is still 5.2 feet below full pool and 4.5 feet below the average Lake level for this time of the year.  If The Corps of Engineers had not significantly reduced Buford Dam releases for navigation, hydropower generation and other purposes, for the past year or so, the Lake level today would be very much lower. 

For normal Lake levels to return we need more rain, and we need the Corps of Engineers’ continued judicious management of Buford Dam releases. 

Tri-States Negotiations 

As you know, the negotiations (Tri-States) among Alabama, Florida and Georgia deal with future allocations of the waters of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river system.  An agreement among the three States would establish the rules for future Buford Dam releases and profoundly influence future Lake Lanier levels. 

The Tri-State negotiations have really been going on since 1989, and there have been millions of dollars spent in comprehensive studies of the ACF river system water uses, needs and values.  The Lake Lanier Association (LLA) has been active and has provided valuable input to deliberations since the 1989 start. 

In 1997 the three States agreed that they would produce a formula for the allocation of ACF waters, by the end of 1998.  That deadline was not met and it was extended.  There have been many deadline extensions since then, with the latest deadline now being June 17, 2002. 

We do not know if there will be an agreement, or if there will be another deadline extension, or if the three States will abandon the talks?  If the States discontinue their negotiations, the most popular predictions are that the issue will eventually end up in the United States Supreme Court, with decisions resulting many years hence. 

We were encouraged in May, last year, when it looked like an agreement was near, but the Florida proposal causing that optimism was subsequently withdrawn by Florida in early summer.  We were encouraged again in January of this year when the three States reached an agreement in principle, but Georgia and Florida were not in agreement in a subsequent March 18th meeting. 

In the March 18th meeting, Florida refused to extend the deadline again, which meant that at midnight of that day the negotiations would officially end.  However, Georgia and Alabama signed an extension agreement and left it with Florida just in case Florida changed its position. Florida did sign the extension agreement before midnight, which produced the current deadline of June 17, 2002. 

The latest proposals are based on a philosophy of keeping more water in Lake Lanier as though a drought is always just around the corner, because droughts cannot be predicted.  The latest proposals, when computer model simulated against historic climatic conditions, show higher Lake Lanier levels than were actually experienced, and the lowest simulated Lake level is higher than the lowest actually experienced.  The LLA has a couple concerns with the latest proposals and has suggested changes, with which the Georgia negotiators seem to agree. 

Recently, the Corps of Engineers challenged Georgia on its water use numbers, and therefore on its year 2030 water use projections.  Work is in process now to try to reconcile what appears to be a difference between the State of Georgia numbers and Corps of Engineers numbers.  If there really is new news here, there could be significant implications future for Lake Lanier levels. 

That is the current status.  We now look forward to the next Tri-States meeting on June 12 in Montgomery.  Needless to say, your Lake Lanier Association will continue its active participation in the ongoing negotiations and assessments to help bring them to a satisfactory Lake Lanier conclusion.

Following is a letter I wrote to the Corps of Engineers about Lake Levels during the summer of 2001, and the response to it from the Corps of Engineers.

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
MOBILE DISTRICT, CORPS OF ENGINEERS
P.O. BOX 2288
MOBILE, ALABAMA 36628-0001

September 12, 2001

REPLY TO
ATTENTION OF:

Water Management Section
Engineering Division 

 

Mr. Ron Seder
Vice President
Lake Lanier Association, Inc.
Post Office Box 1777
Buford, Georgia 30515-8777 

Dear Mr. Seder: 

            This letter is in response to your letter of August 13, 2001, regarding the management of Lake Lanier during the months of July and August 2001. In your letter, you expressed concern about how Lanier has been operated, given the considerable amount of rainfall that has occurred in the area, and about the variation and the amount of water released from Buford Dam. 

            The releases from Buford Dam since last fall have been based on the water supply and water quality needs for the metro Atlanta area. The Corps is just one participant in managing the Chattahoochee River for metro Atlanta water supply needs. Twice weekly, the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) staff polls utilities for their withdrawal estimates and assesses river inflows. Preliminary estimates of needed Lanier releases and releases from Georgia Power Company’s Morgan Fails Dam are provided to us and Georgia Power.  Subsequently, our water managers monitor downstream conditions and modify the Lanier release to prevent Morgan Falls from depleting or exceeding its storage capacity. 

            Our close monitoring of the river has allowed us to take advantage of the rainfalls you mention in your letter. We were able to curtail our releases from the dam when the rainfalls below the dam helped to meet the water demands of the Atlanta area. For the periods of July 4-6, July 25-26, July 31-Aug 1 and Aug 13-14, the Corps reduced releases from Buford Dam in response to the rainfall in the Atlanta area.           

This river management system has allowed us to save a tremendous amount of water in Lanier when operating solely for water supply/water quality. However, it is not perfect. Utilities may change their withdrawals from the estimates they have provided. Rains may occur which substantially fulfill water demands after Lanier water has already been released or scheduled. The mechanism for estimating the Morgan Falls release has been crude and probably a significant source of error. (We are glad to note that Georgia Power, in conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey, is making improvement in flow measuring which should greatly assist in refining flow management in the river.) 

            The outflows from Buford for the period July 8 through August 11 were greater than the 750 cfs flow required at Peachtree Creek. This is because the outflow has to provide enough water to meet the water demands for the metro Atlanta area in addition to meeting the 750 cfs continuous flow requirement at Peachtree Creek. 

            Because conditions have been generally wet downstream, we expect to continue to operate Lanier substantially for water supply and water quality alone over the next several months. I appreciate your concerns about the need to maintain Lanier’s level, and the Corps of Engineers is fully committed to operating the lake and the entire river system in a manner that will equitably serve all the users within the river basin. If I can be of further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me at (251) 690-2511. 

Sincerely, 

 

John W. Bailey
           Major, Corps of Engineers
           Deputy District Engineer

 

  

 LAKE LANIER ASSOCIATION, INC.

 

August 13, 2001


Colonel Robert B. Keyser, District Engineer

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District
P.O. Box 2288
Mobile, Alabama 36628-0001

Dear Colonel Keyser, 

We have had a considerable amount of rain on the Lake Lanier watershed for the past couple months which has allowed Lake Lanier’s level to remain between 1062’ and 1063’ msl but still about 6’ below the average lake level for this time of the year. 

As you know, Lake Lanier has not been full since June of 1998.  Although there are some signs that the three-year drought may be ending we cannot be sure of that.  We face the possibility that the drought could continue and further diminish Lake Lanier levels, jeopardizing much of Georgia’s water supply and the $2 Billion annual Lake Lanier recreational economic benefit. 

For some time I have been reviewing the materials posted on the Corps of Engineers website.  I notice that Lake Lanier’s daily average outflows were about 675 cfs from June 1 through July 7, and about 1115 cfs from July 8 through August 11.  That is an average daily difference of about 440 cfs. 

If the daily average outflows had also been 675 cfs instead of 1115 cfs during the July 8 through August 11 period the Lake would be almost one foot higher today.  And, of course, if that difference were to be continued for many more months it could amount to a lake level difference of several feet. 

It appears that the July 8 through August 11 daily average outflows are greater than are required to provide the 750 cfs minimum flow at Peachtree Creek. 

Would you please explain why the July 8 through August 11 outflows were as high as they were, as well as telling us what we can expect in lake level management actions for the next several months? 

Thank you. 

Sincerely,


Ron Seder
Vice President

 

LAKE LANIER LEVELS

(Ron Seder, 10/7/00)

The discussion of Lake Lanier levels, whether the current condition, or future lake levels that may be determined by a settlement of the Tri-States negotiations, requires some preliminary knowledge.  Let’s start by building a knowledge foundation. 

Lake Lanier is part of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee- Flint River System (ACF) that stretches from North Georgia to the Gulf of Mexico.  The Chattahoochee River, originating in the North Georgia mountains, and the Flint River originating in the Atlanta area, flow south until they join at the Florida border to become the Apalachicola River that flows through the panhandle of Florida to the Gulf of Mexico. 

During normal times the flows from the Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers are approximately the same at the point they come together to form the Apalachicola River.  So, if the Apalachicola flows at 10,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), about 5,000 cfs is supplied from the Chattahoochee and 5,000 cfs is supplied from the Flint. 

Several reservoirs have been built on the Chattahoochee River to store water for many purposes, thereby allowing saving water during wet times and releasing reservoir water during dry times to support the requirements put on the river system. 

Some of the main uses for water taken from the reservoirs are: electric power generation; provide river depth downstream for navigation (float barges); irrigation (mostly in the Flint River area); input to water supplies and to provide minimum river flows to assimilate waste discharges. 

There are four major water storage reservoirs on the Chattahoochee River, Lanier, West Point, George and Seminole.  Lanier contains about 65% of the total reservoir storage on the Chattahoochee River system; therefore Lanier must supply much of the water to augment river flows for dry weather uses. 

The total watershed of the ACF is about 20,000 square miles, and the runoff from those 20,000 square miles provides the water to the ACF river system.  When there is an abundance of rain the runoff from the watershed provides more than enough water in the river system, and some of that excess water is saved in the reservoirs.  When there is a lack of rain and the rivers are receiving much less runoff from the watershed, water is released from the reservoirs to supplement the smaller runoff to provide greater river flows. 

Because the Lake Lanier watershed of 1040 square miles is only about 5% of the total ACF watershed, and because Lanier is a large portion of the total storage on the river system, we see significant fluctuations in Lake Lanier levels.  In other words, there is a huge reliance on water from 5% of the watershed to satisfy the dry weather uses on the other 95% of the watershed.  Because of its relatively small watershed, Lake Lanier is slow to refill.  By comparison, the much smaller Lake Allatoona (25% the capacity of Lake Lanier) has a watershed about the same size as Lanier, and therefore fills much faster for the same amount of rainfall. 

During a normal summer, the dryer part of the year, the Lake Lanier level will be taken down several feet because of Buford Dam releases to generate peak power and augment river flows for the other purposes 

However, which purpose gets how much water during the dry times is a judgment call that can be changed depending on political, environmental and economic influences. 

That is the crux of the Tri-States (Florida, Alabama and Georgia) ACF water distribution negotiations.  The most difficult agreements to reach deal with how to use the reservoir water during dry years.  How important is it to release huge quantities of water to generate peak power?  How important is it to release huge quantities of water to provide the downriver depth for barge navigation?  How important is it to use more of the water for water supplies? How important is it to use huge quantities of water for irrigation? How important is it to provide a 5,000 cubic feet per second minimum flow in the Apalachicola River?  How important is it to keep reservoirs relatively full as a protection against a long duration drought that cannot be predicted?  How important is it to keep water in the reservoirs to support reservoir recreation and the economic benefits it produces.  The answers to all of these questions have a profound impact on Lake Lanier dry weather levels. 

The Lake Lanier full pool level in the summer is considered to be 1071 feet above sea level. 

In the Tri-States negotiations Alabama and Florida want dry weather river flows that would take Lake Lanier down 20 feet lower than was experienced during 1986 to 1988, the worst drought we have had since the lake was filled in 1958.  Of course that would ruin Lake Lanier’s aesthetics and recreation, as well as deplete any further drought insurance to satisfy water uses during an extended drought, especially water supplies.  Taking Lake Lanier to those low levels does not make sense because the harm caused would be much greater than the benefits realized. 

The Tri-States negotiations have their origin in 1989 and there is still great disagreement among the states.  The current deadline for an agreement among the three states is the end of 2000.  That is the fourth deadline, after three others were not met.  It would be nice if the three states could reach a logical and fair agreement, but Florida and Alabama politics may prevent that, which would most likely result in the courts finally making the decisions.  That may not be such a good idea either because it looks like the law is not very definitive in this area, and that makes the outcome of court activities less predictable than we would desire. 

That then brings us to our present lake level.  We are currently in a two-year drought (some say three year).  Normally the lake fills every year, but because of the drought Lake Lanier has not been full since June of 1998.  That means less water to satisfy dry weather demands and to provide high lake levels, and one can see that the lake can go lower and lower during successive years of drought demands. 

How low will Lake Lanier go before its starts to refill?  The main refill period for the lake is from January to May.  Will there be enough rain to fill the lake next year?  We are told that normal rains will provide about 15 feet of Lake Lanier water.  During an August meeting, the Corps of Engineers said the lake could go as low as 1046.8 feet above sea level by year-end.  If that happened normal rains would then only raise the lake level to about 1062 feet above sea level before the lake level is again taken down to satisfy dry weather demands.  

One of the things contributing to the lower Lake Lanier level this year is the billions of gallons of water released from lakes George and Seminole for barge navigation in the April/May time period.  Those releases significantly lowered lakes George and Seminole, from which the continuing drought did not allow them to recover, so more water had to later be released from Lakes West Point and Lanier to satisfy the traditional 5,000 cfs minimum flows in the Apalachicola River.  There were only 10 barges that used the river system as a result of the April/May downriver releases, which is a terrible waste of precious water resources.  The April/May navigation release was clearly a mistake.  Because benefits derived from navigation releases are much less than the benefits of keeping water in the reservoirs, reservoir releases for navigation should be stopped altogether. 

On August 15, 2000 the Corps of Engineers held a meeting, attended by about 100 people, including Lake Lanier Association representatives, to propose that the releases from Lake Lanier be reduced to allow higher lake levels for more insurance against a potential continuing drought.  The Corps’ proposal would have allowed the flows in the Apalachicola River to be reduced below the traditional minimum of 5,000 cubic feet per second (cfs).  As has been said, the Corps was predicting that the lake could go down to about 1047 feet above sea level by the end of the year.  Their August proposal to reduce lake releases would have made the possible year end low point more in the 1050 ballpark. 

Florida opposed the Corps’ plan to reduce the 5,000 cfs Apalachicola River minimum flows.  But, the real reason the Corps was unable to implement its proposal was that it was found that the 5,000 cfs Apalachicola River flows were already stressing two endangered mussel species.  That finding kicked in the Endangered Species Act, which prevented the Corps from implementing its reduced reservoir release plan. 

We have had some rain since the August 15 Corps of Engineers meeting in Columbus.  At that time Lake Lanier’s level was 1061.6.  As this is written on October 8, 2000 Lake Lanier is at 1058.4, or 3.2 feet lower than August 15.  If the lake continues to lower at the same rate it did between August 15 and October 8 we can expect a year-end lake level close to 1053.  That low lake level is unacceptable because of its impact on recreation, the $2 billion annual economic benefit Lake Lanier recreation produces during normal years, and the insurance of having adequate water for our water supplies next year if the drought continues. 

Well that is our situation.  If the drought continues, by the end of this year we will have Lake Lanier levels lower than they ever have been.  And, if the drought continues into 2001 our water supplies will be in serious trouble, and the aesthetics and recreation on the lake will be enormously diminished. 

We also have a real possibility that a settlement of the Tri-States water issues could result in permanently lower lake levels. 

What can be done?  Your Lake Lanier Association (LLA) is represented on the Governor’s Advisory Council for the Tri-States Water Issues, and we make sure your point of view and your interests are articulated.  The LLA participates in meetings dealing with considerations of what to do about current Lake Lanier releases, and again we make sure your point of view and your interests are articulated. 

But, we are up against significant political and financial power representing those interests that want more water released from Lake Lanier.  And, because of their organized political and financial strength, those interests have a lot of influence over Lake Lanier releases.  Therefore, we all must do a better job of influencing Lake Lanier decisions through our contacts with political and other leaders, and our contributions to the Lake Lanier Association Foundation.  We simply need more people involved to do a better job of getting our Lake Lanier interests adequately considered in the decision making process. 

We would all like to see a brighter picture as we look to the future of Lake Lanier, but that picture will only be brighter if we all fight for what is right for the lake.  If a lot more of us do participate in the lake saving struggle we will be able to then look forward to a future Lake Lanier that is still a jewel in North Georgia.